Suppose you ask your friend Naomi to roll a die without letting you
see the result... Having rolled the die Naomi must write down the result
on a piece of paper (without showing you) and place it in an
envelope...
So some people are happy to accept that there is genuine uncertainty about the number before it is thrown (because its existence is ‘not a fact’), but not after it is thrown. This is despite the fact that our knowledge of the number after it is thrown is as incomplete as it was before.
-Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
So some people are happy to accept that there is genuine uncertainty about the number before it is thrown (because its existence is ‘not a fact’), but not after it is thrown. This is despite the fact that our knowledge of the number after it is thrown is as incomplete as it was before.
-Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, Norman Fenton and Martin Neil
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