Active open-mindness (AOM) is a concept coined by the psychologist Jonathan Baron. For super forecasters, beliefs are hypothesis to be tested, not treasures to be guarded. It would be facile to reduce superforecasting to a number-sticker, but if I had to, that would be it.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Undoubtedly, the best book of 2015; every pages tons to wisdom that would help us develop probabilistic thinking. I was and is a participant of Good Judgement Project; albeit being mostly a passive player, I learned so much from the experience. If you haven't read this book, please read it now. Superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and above all self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance.
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A forecaster who doesn't adjust her views in light of new information won't capture the value of that information, while a forecaster who is so impressed by the new information that he bases his forecast entirely on it will lose the value of the old information that underpinned his prior forecast. But a forecaster who carefully balances old and new captures the value in both and puts it into her forecast. The best way to do that is by updating often but bit by bit.
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The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement. It is roughly three times as powerful a predictor as its closest rival, intelligence.
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