Uncertainty is thus not an intrinsic property of events, Spiegelhalter writes, but rather a reflection of the knowledge, perspective and assumptions of the person trying to understand or predict those events. It varies from person to person and situation to situation, even when the circumstances are identical. It is subjective and shaped by what we know or don’t know at a given time.
Spiegelhalter distinguishes two main types of uncertainty: aleatory uncertainty, that which we cannot know, and epistemic uncertainty, that which we do not know. Understanding this distinction is crucial for making informed decisions. Whereas aleatory uncertainty is often irreducible, epistemic uncertainty can be minimized through better data collection, refined models or deeper investigation.
- Review of the book The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck by David Spiegelhalter
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