The short version: our forecasts for the Academy Awards are based on which candidates have won other awards in their category. We give more weight to awards that have frequently corresponded with the Oscar winners in the past, and which are voted on by people who will also vote for the Oscars. We don’t consider any statistical factors beyond that, and we doubt that doing so would provide all that much insight.
- More Here from Nate Silver.
Read the the whole thing to get insights on how to choose and weigh different factors to segregate Signal from Noise.
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