Science—the method that underpins what we know most reliably about the world and ourselves—rests
on uncertainty. The late, great Karl Popper argued that the only thing
that can be definitively proved by an experiment is that a hypothesis is
wrong. Scientists always express, or should express, their ideas in
terms of uncertainty. Remember the historic announcement last year that
CERN had discovered the Higgs Boson? What they said was: "We observe in
our data clear signs of a new particle, at the level of 5 sigma". What’s
that 5 sigma business? It’s a statistical measure: it means that
there’s a 1 in 3.5m chance that the most important discovery in particle
physics in the past 50 years is wrong.
I’m not saying that scientists wake up each morning driven by the passion to prove that their ideas are flawed. We all hope that our theories are 5 sigma. But we have to live with the only certainty—that our opinions could be wrong.
Contrast that with the expectation that most people have of their leaders. The hallmark of charismatic politicians is that they have absolute confidence in their opinions. Politicians who change their minds on the basis of evidence are accused of U-turns, rather than being hailed for their wisdom. But unwillingness to doubt has given the world most of its political disasters—from Darius’s invasion of Greece to the present adventures in Iraq.
Doubt is the engine of intelligence. We suffer from a surfeit of certainty. The most powerful philosophy is always to ask whether there is a possibility that you are wrong.
- Colin Blakemore
I’m not saying that scientists wake up each morning driven by the passion to prove that their ideas are flawed. We all hope that our theories are 5 sigma. But we have to live with the only certainty—that our opinions could be wrong.
Contrast that with the expectation that most people have of their leaders. The hallmark of charismatic politicians is that they have absolute confidence in their opinions. Politicians who change their minds on the basis of evidence are accused of U-turns, rather than being hailed for their wisdom. But unwillingness to doubt has given the world most of its political disasters—from Darius’s invasion of Greece to the present adventures in Iraq.
Doubt is the engine of intelligence. We suffer from a surfeit of certainty. The most powerful philosophy is always to ask whether there is a possibility that you are wrong.
- Colin Blakemore
No comments:
Post a Comment