Saturday, April 22, 2017

The Crisis of Western Civilization

Finally, there has been the collapse of liberal values at home. On American campuses, fragile thugs who call themselves students shout down and abuse speakers on a weekly basis. To read Heather MacDonald’s account of being pilloried at Claremont McKenna College is to enter a world of chilling intolerance.

In America, the basic fabric of civic self-government seems to be eroding following the loss of faith in democratic ideals. According to a study published in The Journal of Democracy, the share of young Americans who say it is absolutely important to live in a democratic country has dropped from 91 percent in the 1930s to 57 percent today.

While running for office, Donald Trump violated every norm of statesmanship built up over these many centuries, and it turned out many people didn’t notice or didn’t care.

The faith in the West collapsed from within. It’s amazing how slow people have been to rise to defend it.


There have been a few lonely voices. Andrew Michta laments the loss of Western confidence in an essay in The American Interest. Edward Luce offers a response in his forthcoming book “The Retreat of Western Liberalism.” But liberalism has been docile in defense of itself.

These days, the whole idea of Western civ is assumed to be reactionary and oppressive. All I can say is, if you think that was reactionary and oppressive, wait until you get a load of the world that comes after it.


- That's  from David Brooks. I have been reading a lot of "mild" pessimism like this. One beautiful passage from Yuval Harari's new book Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow  exposes how Sapiens overcome future prediction by the phenomena of "Paradox of Historical Knowledge":

Marx forgot that capitalists know how to read. At first only a handful of disciples took Marx seriously and read his writings. But as these socialists firebrands gained adherents and power, the capitalists became alarmed. They too perused Das Kapital, adopting many tools and insights of Marxist analysis.

[---]
As people adopted to Marxist diagnosis, they changed their behavior accordingly. Capitalists in countries such as Britain and France strove to better the lot of the workers, strengthen their national consciousness and integrate them into the political system. Consequently, when workers began voting in elections and Labour gained power in one country after other, the capitalists could still sleep soundly in their beds. As a result, Marx's predictions came to naught. This is the paradox of historical knowledge. Knowledge that does not change behavior is useless. But knowledge that changes behavior quickly loses its relevance. More data we have and the better we understand history, the faster history alters its course and the faster our knowledge becomes outdated. 

The factors who are the root cause for these "mild" pessimism will learn from these predictions and might make sure that the "mildness" needs to be eradicated. It's important to note that people didn't change, capitalists changed their behavior after reading Marx. So your guess is as good as mine on who I will be betting on changing the behavior.

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