Bending Adversity - Japan and the Art of Survival

Given these favorable political conditions, unless the economy falters badly or a catastrophe occurs, Abe stands a good chance of becoming a rare long-serving Japanese prime minister. That might be a good thing for Japan’s politics, which could use a respite from weak parties and even weaker leaders. And perhaps Pilling would count this as another example of Japan bending adversity in its favor. But Abe’s success at home might not bode well for the wider region. Japan’s nationalist turn will make peaceful compromise in Asia more difficult, since China and South Korea will feel less inclined to negotiate over territorial disputes with a nationalist who won office partly by taking a hard line on the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and questioning the extent of Japan’s past transgressions.

Pilling points out that although Abe’s approval ratings are relatively high, the majority of Japanese do not support the nationalists, and he may be right. But public opinion on a contentious issue can change quickly. And for the nationalists to control the policy agenda, they don’t need to maintain overwhelming public support, thanks to low voter turnout. This is a phenomenon familiar to Americans: since the majority of eligible voters don’t bother to cast ballots, emotional appeals that can mobilize a minority of committed voters can make a huge difference in elections. Abe and the LDP seem to have bent that particular adversity of Japanese politics to their own ends -- creating a new, more troubling environment for Japan and for the rest of the region.

- Review of the new book Bending Adversity: Japan and the Art of Survival by David Pilling