It's The Civilization Stupid!

People are worried about the economy, global supply chain, politics, liberty and so on during this pandemic. Some "smart" minds are even debating if this is a "recession" or "depression". Their worries are right but highly misplaced and untimely. None of those matters if civilization, as we know, collapses. We are at a point where our main focus should be preserving our civilization by controlling this pandemic.

History, as well as life itself, is complicated -- neither life nor history is an enterprise for those who seek simplicity and consistency.

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Two types of choices seem to me to have been crucial in tipping the outcomes [of the various societies' histories] towards success or failure: long-term planning and willingness to reconsider core values. On reflection we can also recognize the crucial role of these same two choices for the outcomes of our individual lives.

- Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Why aren't so many people paranoid enough (bored is not paranoid) and don't adhere to even the simplest of rules like staying at home? I have listed a few hypotheses; one or many might apply to most people:

• Libertarian and liberty bullshit: The irresponsibility of the libertarian syndrome is irrespective of the level of education (or lack of it). I tried to cover that here. To my surprise, one of the most prominent libertarians' Matt Ridley was humble enough to use his common sense and changed his mind: 

"I'm afraid it is necessary to be pretty draconian when you're in the middle of a pandemic. If you want to preserve freedom…you need to unleash the freedom to innovate, to solve the problem in good times."

• War metaphors: Drawing an analogy from previous wars (WWII to Iraq war) and using Churchill's calmness as an example. I am a big fan of Churchill but something tells me he wasn't fighting viruses. It's ridiculous to hear the war metaphors from intelligent people and expecting current politicians to emulate Churchill. This is a time to panic and to focus on the precautionary principle. Yes, one should do that calmly. But neither pep talks nor silent machoness work in the world of viruses.  We should be scared shit about this now more than ever given we have already seen how bad our infrastructure, political response, and our medical capabilities are. It's better to panic and be wrong (one will look like a fool) than not panic and be wrong (collapse of civilization). David Wallace-Wells has a great piece on this: 

A widespread cultural conviction that keeping your cool and trusting the political and social status quo is preferable to a radical response, any radical response — in all ways, at all times, and in the face of all kinds of threats. Indeed, that the ideal political and social response, no matter the particular crisis, is not responding to the threat but just grinning and bearing it. This is a conviction that serves those people and institutions in power, of course, since it’s a defense of the status quo, but also one which we may have been formed in part by some almost accidental cultural legacies, perhaps chiefly the experience of the British, under Churchill, facing the Blitz. The stiff upper lip has a certain theatrical, patrician appeal in the face of great catastrophe, but it is probably worth keeping in mind, when thinking about the coronavirus or climate change or any number of other potentially devastating threats to stability and prosperity and justice in the world, that we may well have learned the wrong lesson from the Blitz, since ultimately the most important directive was not “keep calm and carry on,” but “win the war, however you can.

This is bad. As I’ve written before about climate change, when the news is alarming, the only responsible response is to be alarmed — and raise alarm. And like runaway climate change, the threat of a global pandemic, which graybeards have been warning about for years, is a reminder that we should always build public policy around the precautionary principle, rather than waiting until uncontestable and inarguable evidence arrives that action is necessary. If we wait that long, it will always be too late.

• Hollywood syndrome: Please don't underestimate the biases that are now part of most minds after watching numerous dystopian movies where a bunch of self-sacrificing "heroes" come to save the world or the world collapses (thankfully there is some good news on this front). One cannot make millions at the box office showing people sitting quietly at home. Hollywood forces our minds for action even none is needed. I have heard people trying to gather outside the hospitals to "cheer" for the health care workers (God, I rest my case!). We need to learn to use action during good times - like electing right politicians, understanding the fundamentals of fat tail events and so on. Here's a good summary of action bias: 

Action bias urges us to do things in ambiguous situations where we feel we should be doing something, whether it is a good idea or not. It is something you should keep in mind because we usually take very bad decisions in such circumstances. Action bias pushes us to act in order to feel good —usually, to act improperly, or at least to act before the right time comes. 

We need to appear active, even if it does not lead to anything. Often, the best strategy is to let the events pass and wait until the situation is clarified to act later. But human beings tend to do anything in a situation of uncertainty, rather than sitting and waiting to see what happens. This was fine 10,000 years ago, when acting before thinking could save one’s life. In today’s world and despite our instincts, thinking and reflecting almost always produces better results than acting without thinking.

• Pandemic, uh? What is that?: One can bring all biases under the universe to retrofit into the current mindset. But yet, survivorship bias has a huge impact. The last big pandemic was is 1918 - exactly 102 years ago. Almost all of them are dead now (leave alone having any "vivid" memories). A great example of a brilliant statistician named Abraham Wald who exposed the survivorship bias of the US army:

When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.

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Simply put, survivorship bias is your tendency to focus on survivors instead of whatever you would call a non-survivor depending on the situation. Sometimes that means you tend to focus on the living instead of the dead, or on winners instead of losers, or on successes instead of failures.

• Political tribalism: I have no idea what to do about this almost omnipresent syndrome except to say one has to have a very open mind. To say the least, I am not a big fan of the current Indian prime minister. But I applaud his decision to lockdown a country of 1.3 billion people which is more or less a political suicide if things go well (or doesn't go well). I don't see people who voted for the current occupant of White House criticizing him in spite of his continuous arrogance, only this time against a "virus" of all things. I do feel like I am living inside a cartoon movie where rules of gravity nor common sense apply. This is the kind who "intelligently" spread conspiracy theories and refuse to look at what in front of their nose. 

Well, personally, I’ve seen enough of people who die for an idea. I don’t believe in heroism; I know it’s easy and I’ve learned that it can be murderous.  

What interests me is living and dying for what one loves. 

- Albert Camus, The Plague

I know what coming back to America from a war zone is like because I’ve done it so many times. First, there’s a kind of shock at the comfort and affluence that we enjoy, but that is followed by the dismal realization that we live in a society that is basically at war with itself. People speak with incredible contempt about, depending on their views: the rich, the poor, the educated, the foreign born, the President, or the entire US government. It is a level of contempt that is usually reserved for enemies in wartime except that now it is applied to our fellow citizens. Unlike criticism, contempt is particularly toxic because it assumes a moral superiority in the speaker. Contempt is often directed at people who have been excluded from a group or declared unworthy its benefits. Contempt is often used by governments to provide rhetorical cover for torture or abuse. Contempt is one of four behaviors that, statistically, can predict divorce in married couples. People who speak with contempt for one another will probably not remain united for long 

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For a former soldier to miss the clarity and importance of his wartime duty is one thing, but for civilians to is quite another. 'Whatever I say about war, I still hate it, " one survivor, Nidzara Ahmentasevic made sure to tell me after I'd interviewed her about the nostalgia of her generation. "I do miss something from the war.  But I also believe that the world we are living in - and the peace that we have - is very fucked up if somebody is missing war. And many people do. 

- Sebastian Junger's book Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging is a good meditation to keep myself calm when I encounter one of these kinds. 

• Doomsday savvy dude: They want the civilization to collapse so they can laugh and say - I told you so. These are folks who forgot to live life while perpetually preparing for the doomsday. Extreme fundamentalists who mostly live off-the-grid (and some amongst us). These are mostly silent kind while their families are silent victims. Tara Westover's book Educated should be a wake-up call that this is not uncommon. 

Understand: Each and every one of us is a ticking timebomb waiting to host the virus. If not this pandemic, there will be a bigger one coming soon. We can learn and prepare for it once we restore and upgrade the civilization in the coming months. Until then:

• Stay home: No one is asking you to meditate or be still. Watch oodles of TV (avoid news). Play video games if you cannot read a book. Keep yourself and your house clean. You don't have to work out nor start a new routine that you are not comfortable with. Do whatever you are comfortable doing but do it inside your house. Don't overestimate our understandings of aerosols. The goal is to avoid contact with the virus.
• Cook your own food: Avoid take out - it's a minefield. Restaurants and delivery options are breeding grounds for viruses no matter how clean they keep it. My heart goes out to restaurant businesses and their employees. But they will recover when we're back again. Eat canned or frozen foods if you don't know how to cook. You don't have to eat healthy if you cannot. Don't force your body to do something if its not comfortable with it. The goal is to eat food that is not hosting the virus. 
• Avoid or limit alcohol: The temptations are very high when one has nothing to do. Alcohol is bad for your immune system. If you are an addict, try to limit the intake. You can try some immune-boosting recommendations. The goal is to prepare your immune system to defend against the virus.

The above three things are very easy to do. The economy is just a reflection of the civilization it inherits and not that other way around. Even Cormac McCarthy's novel The Road had an "economy" but with a very different kind of economics. We don't want to end up in a civilization portrayed in The Road.

The Road isn’t about the apocalypse. It’s about love. It’s about having the courage to be decent in indecent times.

It may seem that compassion is an outdated practice yet The Road argues compassion is as primal as cruelty. That compassion, not cruelty, will restore order to the fallen world.

The Road is bleak. It will test your spirit. It will make you question the fate of humanity.

We can use all the luck we can but remember that luck favors the prepared. Let's observe and learn from the mistakes we did and doing now. Let's be decent and be civilized in these difficult times. We can work on restoring and upgrading our civilization only if most of us survive this pandemic.