Predicting aspects of social life is quite a different challenge from, say, forecasting the weather. Weather predictions don’t have to take into account the idiosyncratic behavior of individuals, who make their own choices but are also subject to influence. This creates a new ethical dilemma for journalists, who must reckon with how their news organizations’ behavior—publishing or framing information in particular ways—might influence how predicted events unfold.
Consider the potential impact of election predictions in 2016, many of which had Hillary Clinton as the clear favorite. It’s possible that individual Hillary supporters saw those predictions and thought something like, “She’s got this one in the bag. I’m busy on Tuesday, and my vote won’t be decisive anyway, so I don’t need to vote.” According to one study, election predictions may indeed depress voter turnout, depending on how those predictions are presented to people.
The important point here is that the act of publication may create a feedback loop that dampens (or amplifies) the likelihood of something actually happening. News organizations that publish predictions need to be aware of their own role in influencing the outcome they are predicting.
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Although the accuracy of the model is only truly knowable in retrospect, making the nuts and bolts of its process visible can at least help readers put predictions in perspective. If a model is built on a set of flimsy assumptions, readers can be appropriately skeptical of what it tells them.
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As predictions grow into and beyond their journalistic roots in elections, transparency, uncertainty communication, and careful consideration of the social dynamics of predictive information will be essential to their ethical use. We should expect the experiences of data journalists to coalesce into a set of ethical expectations and norms. We’re not there yet, but perhaps one day there will even be a style guide for predictive journalism.
- More Here
Consider the potential impact of election predictions in 2016, many of which had Hillary Clinton as the clear favorite. It’s possible that individual Hillary supporters saw those predictions and thought something like, “She’s got this one in the bag. I’m busy on Tuesday, and my vote won’t be decisive anyway, so I don’t need to vote.” According to one study, election predictions may indeed depress voter turnout, depending on how those predictions are presented to people.
The important point here is that the act of publication may create a feedback loop that dampens (or amplifies) the likelihood of something actually happening. News organizations that publish predictions need to be aware of their own role in influencing the outcome they are predicting.
[---]
Although the accuracy of the model is only truly knowable in retrospect, making the nuts and bolts of its process visible can at least help readers put predictions in perspective. If a model is built on a set of flimsy assumptions, readers can be appropriately skeptical of what it tells them.
[---]
As predictions grow into and beyond their journalistic roots in elections, transparency, uncertainty communication, and careful consideration of the social dynamics of predictive information will be essential to their ethical use. We should expect the experiences of data journalists to coalesce into a set of ethical expectations and norms. We’re not there yet, but perhaps one day there will even be a style guide for predictive journalism.
- More Here
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