Quote of the Day

"Obviously you hold the view you think is most likely to be true. But I think you should give that something like 60-40, whereas in reality most people will give it 95 to 5, or 99 to 1, in terms of probability that it is correct. Or if you ask people what is the chance this view of yours is wrong, very few people are willing to assign it any number at all."

-Tyler Cowen, On Certainty